Friday, 7 October 2011

Smarter Stats: This Aaron Rodgers guy? He’s pretty good!




This week's statistical potpourri features several quarterback numbers that put one man above the rest when it comes to pure efficiency — Aaron Rodgers. The numbers below are reflected in traditional quarterback rating for the most part (that will change as the season progresses), and all stats come from STATS, Inc. or Football Outsiders unless indicated otherwise.

Leaders in traditional passer rating through four weeks in a few different sets (we're not using Football Outsiders' DVOA for these just yet, because the opponent adjustments just start to kick in this early in the season): On two-WR sets, Aaron Rodgers has a perfect passer rating of 158.3. This could be explained a few different ways — with just two receivers, there's more of a chance that the uncoverable Jermichael Finley would be on the field, Rodgers might be prone to dump off to his backs if he doesn't see anything upfield, and … oh, the last one — Aaron Rodgers is just REALLY REALLY GOOD. Behind A-Rodge in 2-WR passer rating is Ben Roethlisberger (138.2), Ryan Fitzpatrick (137.1), Matt Hasselbeck (131.3), and Matt Cassel (130.7).

The leader among quarterbacks in 3-WR sets is Drew Brees, which makes sense — if Sean Payton has three receivers to play with, he's going to turn things into a formational nightmare for the opposing defense. Brees and his 132.4 rating is followed by Eli Manning (124.1), Aaron Rodgers (111.0), Cam Newton (107.4), and Matthew Stafford (104.9).

How about the increasingly popular 4-WR sets? Your leader at the quarter-turn in passer rating for sets of four or more receivers would be … oh, what a surprise! Mr. Rodgers again, with a 121.1 rating. Behind Rodgers are Tom Brady (116.1), Philip Rivers (105.4), Josh Freeman (105.2), and Mark Sanchez (100.1). Considering that fact that Sanchez's passer rating is 75.9 overall, maybe the Jets should run a few more multi-receiver sets against the Patriots this Sunday.

And yes, you read that right — Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback in the NFL to be in the top five in passer rating no matter the number of receivers. Another reason he's the best quarterback in the NFL right now.

Rodgers also has the league's best passer rating in shotgun sets at 119.5 (go figure). More and more, this is an important consideration. 2011 is the first season in which the NFL is running more than 40 percent shotgun overall, and the Packers are running shotgun 51.9 percent of the time this season — that's sixth-most in the league, per Football Outsiders. Behind Rodgers in the Pantheon of shotgun quarterbacks is Eli Manning (108.7, 39.0% shotgun), Tom Brady (107.5, 47.8% shotgun), Drew Brees (106.3, 40.4% shotgun), and Matt Hasselbeck (106.1, 35.2% shotgun).

The Lions lead the league in shotgun percentage just as they did in 2010 — this season, they're in the gun 67 percent of the time, and in 2010, they did so 64.5 percent of the time. The Bears have the fewest shotgun snaps (15.2 percent), just as they did in 2010 (10.4 percent). Given Jay Cutler's protection issues, that doesn't make a lot of sense, but this is Mike Martz we're talking about here…


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